Another Prorogation in the works?

Stephen Harper is using the threat of "coalition" to sway voters to give him his much coveted majority. The tactic might actually work, though his own words from 2004 are coming back to haunt him. If the Conservatives do come back in with a minority again, though, his predictions might be fairly close to what actually unfolds.

First, I think we can assume that if the Conservatives get the plurality of votes, that Stephen Harper will take the helm once again. Even though his aids have occasionally left the impression that Harper is interested in a majority or nothing at all, when push comes to shove it's inconceivable that he would pass up the invitation from the Governor General to head up the country once again if he falls short of that mark.

If we are to believe Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, though, what will happen shortly after is that a budget just like the last will be brought in. This will put the opposition parties in a bit of a pickle. Having all declared that they could not support Flaherty's budget before the election, will any party now turn around and support it? I don't think so. A Conservative minority government therefore seems to be a short-lived one if all parties stand by their commitments (never a sure thing in politics, of course).

This would provide an opportunity for Michael Ignatieff to step in and form a minority government (one that Stephen Harper would denounce as illegitimate, of course, but there are precedents, and it's exactly what he was advising Adrienne Clarkson to do as Governor General in 2004 if the Martin government failed to maintain confidence in the house). I doubt this would be a formal coalition given the denials by Ignatieff in recent days and the effectiveness of Harper's campaign against the concept recently. It would instead be a minority government supported by the other opposition parties, as seems to be the norm in Canadian politics.

The other possibility, though, is that Harper might once again prorogue parliament and work out some sort of deal. Could it work for a third time? Possibly. As Harper's designate, David Johnston might co-operate. I suspect the opposition parties would be wary of co-operating once again. Much will likely come down to how effective Harper's rhetoric against a "coalition" (even an informal one) is. So far, it has worked surprising well.